Tracking the 3.5 million jobs President Obama will save or create
Posted on January 8, 2010 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
In an earlier essay I tried to explain President Obama’s notion of saving or creating jobs. The stimulus plan bill was passed by both houses of Congress last night and the final plan was a bit smaller than the earlier version, so the President now asserts that the plan will save or create 3.5 million [...]
Read More..>>After the recession ends, when will unemployment fall?
Posted on January 4, 2010 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
The unemployment rate typically continues to rise for a few months after recessions end, but in recent years the timing seems to have changed. After the end of recessions from 1948 until the 1980s, rapid economic growth followed quickly with a sharp improvement in unemployment. But after the last two recessions (recessions that ended in [...]
Read More..>>Understanding the Recession that started in December 2007
Posted on December 29, 2009 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
On December 1, 2008, the NBER announced that a recession in the US started in December 2007 (for more about how the NBER came to this conclusion, see here; for the NBER announcement, see here). [Note that after this article was initially posted, the data have been updated and the table includes updates; see below [...]
Read More..>>US Inflation After the Recession of 2007-2009
Posted on December 29, 2009 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
To combat the economic slowdown and credit crisis of 2007-2009, the Fed took actions that were beyond anything attempted in the last 50 years; interest rates were cut to virtually zero and the Fed massively expanded its balance sheet by purchasing (in addition to the usual Treasury Bills) Treasury Bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities from [...]
Read More..>>Understanding when the Recession will End
Posted on June 23, 2009 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
The start and end of recessions are determined by the NBER, a “private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization” (see here for more). While there has been much debate about why this group has the power to determine the dating of recessions, their proclamations are generally accepted by most economists.
The NBER determines what are the peaks and [...]
Understanding Employment (or Obama and the 2.5 or 3 or 4 or [update] 3.5 million jobs)
Posted on January 11, 2009 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
President-elect Obama’s economic team says that he was developing a plan that “would save or create nearly four million jobs”. Four million jobs is a large number; this essay will try to explain how large. (Note: earlier, Obama said his plan would “save or create at least two and a half million jobs”; later Obama [...]
Read More..>>Is the US in Recession in 2008? YES
Posted on December 1, 2008 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
[Updated as of November 26 data; on December 1, 2008, the NBER announced that in December 2007 a recession started. I will no longer update this article with but I will write more about the recession here.]
Many market analysts (e.g., Warren Buffett, Martin Feldstein and Alan Greenspan), have argued that the U.S. economy [...]
Understanding Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Posted on August 20, 2008 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
The U.S. is a consumption driven economy; personal consumption expenditures (PCE), that is consumption by households and nonprofits represent approximately 70% of GDP; in comparison, Japanese private consumption is a bit less than 60% of GDP (Japanese GDP data are available here) and German final consumer expenditure is around 57% (see here for German GDP [...]
Read More..>>Understanding Data Announcements
Posted on August 14, 2008 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
If you look at a data calendar (see here for a calendar and here for my essay) you can find out when certain data are released (for example, the Employment Report is typically released on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 am Eastern Time). The Employment Report essay (here) explains how the Bureau [...]
Read More..>>Understanding the U.S. GDP
Posted on August 12, 2008 - Filed Under Economy | Leave a Comment
This essay will provide an overview of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States, Subsequent essays will provide more detail on the components of U.S. GDP.
The GDP is an attempt by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to measure the value of final goods and services produced in the US in a [...]