Intrade Prices and the Bradley Effect
Posted on October 29, 2008 - Filed Under Markets | Leave a Comment
I wrote an article about the “Bradley Effect” and Intrade prices, available here. I found that Intrade traders do not seem to believe that the black candidate (in this case, Sen. Obama) will get a smaller percentage of the vote on Election Day than he is getting in the polls.
Read More..>>Understanding Volatility (the Vix)
Posted on October 23, 2008 - Filed Under Markets | Leave a Comment
Stock prices go up and down every day; volatility is an attempt to measure how much prices vary. In this article I explain the VIX, a specific measure of market volatility. But first I will briefly review a little statistical theory (defining volatility) and then I address the specifics of the VIX (readers who understand [...]
Read More..>>Understanding the TED Spread
Posted on October 16, 2008 - Filed Under Markets | Leave a Comment
The TED spread (see here for recent quotes) is the difference between the three-month Treasury Bill interest rate and the three-month LIBOR interest rate, that is, the TED spread measures the degree of riskiness of the bank lending market. Increases or decreases in this spread are viewed by market participants as indicating the degree of [...]
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